Bull Spotting: Finding Facts in the Age of Misinformation by Loren Collins

Conspiracies

  • Conspiracies do exist. The conspiracy that involved at least 19 hijackers on 9/11/2001 is a vivid example. Denialists, however, site conspiracies that generally do not exist to promote their ideas and agendas. Such conspiracies exaggerate this real phenomenon. People that believe in one unfounded conspiracy theory are prone to believe in others.
  • Event conspiracies claim a discrete event like the moon landing did not occur. Systemic conspiracies claim that many people within a system such as the government are cooperating to do or hide something. The assumption is that people involved have something to gain.
  • A fundamental attribution error is one where you attribute the actions of others to bad motives rather than bad luck. Hindsight bias allows one to ask why certain actions weren’t taken in retrospect. An example is why didn’t the military shoot down the 9/11 planes before they hit the World Trade Center and the Pentagon? Most theories require a large organization to execute them as well as time, money, and effort. They also need someone who would benefit if it were true, but the reasons may not seem big enough to justify the effort. After just about anything happens, it’s not hard to come up with someone who could benefit.
  • Real conspiracies commonly fall apart as too many people are involved and one of them gets cold feat or fears punishment. Deep Throat from the Watergate conspiracy is a prime example. Fake conspiracies usually avoid spelling out an alternative narrative as it would be open to being broken down.

Rumors

  • False rumors and fictional fact are the lifeblood of conspiracy theories and denialist movements. The best way to defeat a false rumor is to attack it at its source. They can result from facts that were misinterpreted, misremembered, or manufactured. Professional papers can often be misinterpreted by casual readers, which includes the news media. Humor is often misinterpreted as fact by people who don’t realize they are dealing with a joke. Confirmation bias will serve to feed misinterpretations. Misremembering is something that we all do without intent. As for manufactured facts, if you can defeat these types for rumors, you can destroy the credibility of the creator.
  • Always be on the alert for reliable sources. If it’s a newsworthy story or a quote, demand the source. If it’s a filmed event, demand the video. Memories can be unreliable. Always be skeptical of information lacking significant detail. Be suspicious if any and every detail that could be used to verify or debunk the rumor is conveniently absent.

Quotations

  • Quotations are often used to support a person’s case. Misquotes often have a life of their own as people who support the concepts involved spread them. One trick is to attribute a quote to a famous person that originates from a non famous source. To spot fake quotes, start by demanding a specific date and source. Watch for quotes pulled out of context by looking for things like ellipses. If a quote from a famous person sounds like something one of their enemies might have said, beware. Spotting fake quotes just takes critical thinking like looking for clues that a quote from long ago sounds like it could have been made yesterday. Loren suggests you use Wikiquotes to check the quality of quotes.
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