Generalizing and Mean Regression
- Chapter 16: People are unlikely to learn anything they can use from surprising statistical facts. They can, however, generalize when presented with surprising individual cases. In short we are unwilling to deduce the particular from the general, but we can infer the general from the particular.
- Chapter 17: If you don’t understand the concept of regression to the mean, go strait to this chapter. System 1 has the bad habit attributing cause the changes that are only random fluctuations. This is part of the reason System 2 finds it difficult to understand mean regression and correlation, which are both aspects of the same concept. (Dr. Doug: Changes in a student’s NCLB scores from one year to the next will vary just like someone’s golf score. Just because it goes up or down doesn’t mean the teacher was good or bad. Regression scores are a common source of trouble in research. Get ready for more trouble as teachers are judged by regressive test scores.)
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